I recall the following statistic: “Executives understand direct orders on average by only 60 percent.” This fact was brought to my attention before it became widely known, so I have grounds to trust it. In any case, whatever this figure may be, the problem it illustrates is well known. We are talking about one of the reasons for the weakness of hierarchies. The more links in the chain, the higher the information losses and the worse the manageability. No order is carried out 100 percent literally. Those giving orders usually mean something else, guided by their ideas about how events should unfold after the order is received, and the most interesting thing is that they cannot fully formulate this “something else”—let alone the subordinate’s ability to understand and execute the instructions precisely.
This is exactly why “experience of working together” is so important in hierarchies, why the concept of a “well-synchronized team” is so valued. These definitions simply describe people who have learned to understand each other in the chain of decision-making and commands, to understand what is actually meant behind the literal part of an order.
Now let us translate this problem into a conspiracy—that is, into a situation where participants act secretly and in most cases do not trust each other. We will see that in this situation the problem is multiplied many times over. A conspiracy implies achieving a predetermined goal, not just sabotage and “putting spanners in the works.” We will understand that conspiracies can work only in the short term and for very simple goals. For example, a palace coup is a goal quite achievable by a conspiracy. But a more complex goal—palace coup in order to make all redheads become mining engineers—is unlikely to be achievable through a conspiracy.
Conspiracy theorists usually operate with conspiracies that impress with their scale and duration. However, real conspiracies cannot exist for a long time because without exception all people act, constantly choosing from available alternatives. The world changes, alternatives and their value change. Over time it becomes unclear why a conspirator should act for the sake of a palace coup that will help all redheads become mining engineers. Perhaps at the moment of the conspiracy, this was the most valuable alternative. But everything changes.
Or take another example with alternatives. Let us take the conspiracy favored by the people concerning oil companies with the goal of preventing cheap energy sources. I fully admit that some companies may not want such a turn of events, and I even admit that they make conscious efforts to prevent certain technologies from entering the market. Moreover, I believe that companies can even coordinate their efforts in this activity. However, the absence of a complete and mass alternative to oil is not the result of this activity. The absence of an alternative is simply a statement of the fact that at given oil prices other alternatives are unprofitable.
And finally, the most important argument—the cost of a conspiracy. For example, let us turn to the process of state expansion, which I find so fascinating. Just think about what an amazingly beautiful and far-sighted conspiracy emerges in the process of money monopolization. Today the conspirators have obtained a situation where they completely control all owners of state money and manage their activity. Inflation allows conspirators to receive constant income from the redistribution of wealth, owners of money are forced to protect them from inflation by lending to banks, thereby further increasing the income of conspirators. Inflation makes savings, say for old age, meaningless, forcing the creation of pension funds under state guarantee. This makes people completely dependent on the state, creates patterns of their lives in which they are forced from birth to death to rely on the state and therefore all sorts of support it at “elections.” Actually, this conspiracy turns all of us into slaves of the issuers of monopoly money.
There is only one catch. Its participants had to work secretly tirelessly somewhere from the 18th century to the end of the 20th, and only the “elite” of the late 20th century could fully enjoy the result. Do you believe in the reality of such a conspiracy?