The hits of the last two weeks are, perhaps, two recurring discussions: that ATO veterans will return home and teach everyone a lesson (the triumph of the forces of good) and that in the autumn we can expect a social explosion (the triumph of the forces of evil). Of course, variations are possible—for example, many believe that ATO veterans will also take part in the social explosion, on the side of the forces of evil, because… because.
As it seems to me, these discussions are quite far from reality. The mere return home of veterans does not cause a revolution, even when things at home aren’t quite right. At a rough guess, only the Decembrists come to mind, and even then, that was just impressionable youth that had seen European wonders. What participants of the ATO saw in Luhansk and Donetsk—we know perfectly well. The “Afghan veterans,” for example, despite being lionized with all their might in the late USSR and early post-Soviet period, never became a politically significant factor. They were merely participants in various actions, but not their authors, and not their driving force.
A veteran wants, first of all, to return to civilian life. And the problem “he can do nothing else but fight” does not apply to veterans who were, roughly speaking, pulled away from their workbenches and sent to the front—it applies to professional military personnel, officers, who after serving their 25 years retire at 45, don’t know where to put themselves, and die of boredom. This is a completely different story. An ordinary fighter will return to his workbench, wife and children, and will always have something to do. The only thing we will definitely have to reckon with regarding veterans is an increase in the number of Ukrainians with improved combat skills. But in itself this is not a cause for revolutions.
The “social explosion” is even more interesting. Those who aren’t lazy can go to a library and read newspaper collections from the early 90s (alas, these gems are not available on the internet). There, every other headline is about a social explosion. Absolutely. Tomorrow already. And yet, there was no explosion. Ukrainians quietly stole whatever was lying around, grew food on their “dachas” (country plots, if anyone remembers), and tried to sell each other trainloads (smaller amounts somehow didn’t work) of KAMAZ trucks and “vertushkas” (helicopters) with oil and gasoline. They had absolutely no intention of rebelling, despite the nonstop incantations of media and politicians.
Then as now, the idea of a “social explosion” is justified by poor macroeconomic indicators. That is, it is believed that if things are bad, the people will inevitably rebel. But we, dear reader, know well that these same indicators have no relation to real life. No one will go to the Maidan because the state treasury ran out of money. And even if, God forbid, the volatility of the sideways trend (tm) decreases by 10%, the heart of a Ukrainian will flutter, but he will stay home.
What’s different is that poor indicators give various politicians a good excuse for stage-managed events. One can gather people for pickets and demonstrations with shouting, or even with fistfights, and TV experts will explain that “what else do you want, with such volatility? Of course, the people will rebel!” But where are the causes and where are the effects in our case? All of this has nothing to do with reality.
And this “social explosion” itself is a misnomer. The correct term is “state” explosion. It is when the public comes and begins to express dissatisfaction with the state, peacefully or violently. So, this happens only with the loss of legitimacy—when the state violates the ordinary law in the form of unwritten rules and expectations. If you want to understand whether there will be a social explosion, simply look at yourself and your friends and think: do you believe in the inviolability of the volatility of the sideways trend (tm)? Are you capable of surviving its fateful fluctuations? Can they drive you onto the street? Even—let’s simplify and harden—can cold radiators in winter send you to overthrow Poroshenko, rather than the head of the housing office? I somehow doubt it. They cannot.
Well, but what if the robbery and humiliation of Ukrainians by the state continues? And here one must think, truly. And veterans, by the way, will come in handy.